SEO often feels like gambling. You publish a post, build a few links, and then stare at your dashboard, hoping the line goes up.
But the top 1% of SEO pros don’t hope. They predict.
They don’t waste time optimizing random pages. Instead, they use a specific combination of Moz and Google Analytics 4 (GA4) to identify exactly which pages are primed to jump in the rankings. They look for “leading indicators”—data points that signal a page is about to win, if you just give it a tiny push.
If you want to stop guessing and start sniping easy wins, here is the exact workflow.
The “Striking Distance” Method
The easiest win in SEO is not ranking a new keyword; it’s promoting a keyword that is already knocking on the door. We call these “Striking Distance” keywords—terms ranking between positions 11 and 20 (Page 2).
Google has already decided these pages are relevant. They just aren’t “authoritative” enough yet.
The Workflow:
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In Moz Pro: Open the Keyword Explorer or your Campaign settings. Filter your ranking keywords to show only those in positions #11–20.
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In Google Analytics (GA4): Cross-reference those specific URLs. Check their Conversion Rate or Key Events.
The Prediction: If a page is ranking #14 but has a higher conversion rate than your average page, this is a guaranteed win. The user intent is a perfect match.
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The Fix: Add 2–3 internal links from your high-authority pages (check “Page Authority” in Moz) to this specific page. You will often see it jump to Page 1 within weeks.
The “Engagement Mismatch” Strategy
Google uses user signals (like how long people stay on a page) to decide if a result is good. Sometimes, you have a page that users love, but Google hasn’t noticed yet because it lacks backlinks.
This is a “Hidden Champion.”
The Workflow:
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In GA4: Go to Reports > Engagement > Pages and Screens.
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Sort by Average Engagement Time or Engagement Rate. Look for pages with numbers way above your site average (e.g., 2 minutes vs. 30 seconds).
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In Moz: Check the Page Authority (PA) of those high-engagement pages.
The Prediction: If you find a page with high engagement but low Page Authority (PA), you have found a goldmine. Google’s algorithm wants to rank this content because users love it, but it doesn’t trust the authority yet.
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The Fix: This page doesn’t need a rewrite. It needs PR. Build external backlinks to this specific URL. Once the “trust” signal catches up to the “engagement” signal, the rankings will skyrocket.
The “Authority Gap” Snipe
Sometimes you lose rankings simply because you are “under-optimized,” even though you are actually the stronger website. This is the most frustrating—and easiest to fix—scenario.
The Workflow:
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In Moz: Use the Keyword Explorer to search for a target keyword you are struggling with. Look at the SERP Analysis report.
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Compare your Domain Authority (DA) to the sites ranking above you.
The Prediction: If you have a DA of 50, and the sites ranking #1, #2, and #3 have DAs of 20, 30, and 25, the math says you should be winning. You aren’t losing because they are stronger; you are losing because your on-page SEO is weak.
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The Fix: Do not build links. Instead, aggressively optimize your Title Tag, H1s, and content depth. You have the “muscle” (Authority) to beat them; you just need to fix your “technique” (On-Page).
The “Zero-Click” Warning
Predicting wins is also about predicting losses. Sometimes, ranking #1 isn’t worth it.
The Workflow:
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In Moz: Look at the Organic CTR (Click-Through Rate) score in Keyword Explorer.
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In GA4: Check the traffic for terms where you already rank well.
The Prediction: If Moz shows a Keyword Difficulty of 80 (hard) but an Organic CTR of 40% (low), it means the search results are clogged with Ads, Featured Snippets, and “People Also Ask” boxes. Even if you win the #1 spot, you won’t get much traffic.
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The Decision: Pivot. Don’t waste resources fighting for a keyword that won’t pay the bills. Focus your budget on terms with higher CTR potential.
FAQs
Q1: How often should I run these reports?
Do this once a month. SEO moves slowly. Checking every day will just make you anxious.
Q2: Can I do this with the free version of Moz?
You can do a limited version. The free MozBar Chrome extension shows you DA and PA, which is enough for the “Authority Gap” strategy. However, for “Striking Distance” keywords, you really need the full Keyword Explorer data.
Q3: Why use GA4 instead of just Moz traffic estimates?
Moz predicts search volume, but only GA4 tells you what users actually do once they arrive. Ranking for a high-volume keyword is useless if everyone bounces immediately. GA4 confirms the value before you invest the effort.
Conclusion: Data Over Gut Feelings
The difference between an amateur and a pro is that the amateur optimizes what they feel is important. The pro optimizes what the data says is ready to move.
By layering Moz’s market data over your own GA4 user data, you stop hoping for rankings and start manufacturing them.
Stop Guessing. Start Ranking.
Ready to see which keywords are hiding in your “Striking Distance” zone? Grab a free trial of Moz Pro and get the data you need to predict your next big win.
